In terms of housing stock, the United Kingdom has approximately 28.7 million dwellings, making it one of the top countries in Europe—following Germany (the largest), France, Italy, and Spain. In contrast, many Eastern and Northern European countries have fewer than 10 million homes, highlighting significant differences in market scale that influence strategic approaches.
As for primary heating systems, the UK and the Netherlands remain heavily reliant on natural gas boilers, with over 80% penetration. Meanwhile, Norway and Sweden primarily use electric heating and heat pumps. France and Germany show a more balanced mix of gas, electricity, and heat pump technologies.
Between 2018 and 2022, air-to-air heat pumps were the most widely sold type across Europe, with over 3 million units sold. They were followed by air-to-water heat pumps (2.9 million units), domestic hot water heat pumps (970,000 units), ground-source heat pumps (470,000 units), and hybrid systems (380,000 units).
In the UK, adoption of heat pumps has been relatively slow. Only about 1,000 air-to-air units were sold over five years. In contrast, sales of air-to-water units increased from 22,400 in 2018 to 53,000 in 2022. There are no notable sales of domestic hot water or exhaust-air heat pumps.
In France, over 200,000 air-to-air heat pumps are sold annually, with about 70% installed in existing homes. Rising demand for summer cooling and the spread of air conditioning technology have supported adoption, along with government incentives such as the MaPrimeRénov subsidy.
Italy also favors air-to-air systems, with 223,000 units sold in 2022. High cooling demand and a 110% superbonus incentive have accelerated uptake.
In Germany, the market is centered on air-to-water and hybrid systems. Starting in 2024, a new subsidy scheme will cover up to 70% of installation costs, with a national goal of 500,000 units installed per year.
In the Netherlands, ground-source heat pumps dominate the market (42%), while air-to-air systems account for only 2%. However, tax reforms and new efficiency standards are encouraging broader adoption.
Regarding energy prices, electricity is most expensive in Ireland (€0.204/kWh), while Sweden has the highest gas prices (€0.0767/kWh). These cost differences between electricity and gas significantly affect the running costs of heat pumps.
Looking Ahead: Key Factors for Heat Pump Deployment
- Financial incentives and tax reforms to reduce upfront costs
- Public awareness and training for installers
- Grid infrastructure upgrades and flexibility for peak demand
Key Terms
- Air-to-Air Heat Pump: An energy-efficient system providing both heating and cooling. Known for its low installation cost and ease of setup.
- GWP (Global Warming Potential): Indicates the environmental impact of refrigerants. Low-GWP refrigerants are increasingly important in heat pump adoption.
- MaPrimeRénov: A French government subsidy program that helps fund energy-efficient home upgrades, including heat pump installations.
