The Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) has published shipment data for April 2025, offering insights into recent trends across residential and commercial HVAC markets.
Water Heaters
In the residential storage water heater segment, both gas and electric units showed a year-over-year decline:
- Gas-fired units: 367,604 units (–4.3% YoY)
- Electric units: 450,168 units (–2.6% YoY)
Despite the April dip, year-to-date figures show a slight increase in gas-fired models, up 0.7% from the same period last year.
For commercial water heaters, the trend diverged:
- Gas-fired units: down 1.4% YoY
- Electric units: up 1.2% YoY
This suggests a gradual rise in demand for electric commercial systems.
Warm-Air Furnaces
Gas-fired warm-air furnaces posted a notable 12.7% year-over-year increase, reaching 264,259 units in April. The year-to-date growth stands at 19.6%, indicating a proactive response to anticipated heating demand for the upcoming winter.
Oil-fired furnaces declined slightly year-over-year but show an 11.6% increase year-to-date.
Central Air Conditioners & Heat Pumps
Combined shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps totaled 796,279 units, a 6.4% increase compared to April 2024.
- Central air conditioners: 422,275 units (–2.8% YoY)
- Air-source heat pumps: 374,004 units (+18.9% YoY)
The sharp growth in heat pump sales reflects ongoing trends in electrification and decarbonization.
Notably, systems categorized by BTUH (British Thermal Units per Hour) show that residential-sized units (under 64.9k BTUH) experienced the most significant growth—underscoring strong activity in the housing sector.
Outlook and Market Impact
The surge in heat pump adoption highlights their role as a key energy-efficient solution compatible with renewable energy sources. As environmental regulations tighten and consumer interest in sustainable systems grows, heat pump demand is expected to expand further.
Conversely, a decline in commercial-scale equipment shipments suggests a market shift toward residential and mid-sized systems.
Key Terms
- Heat Pump: A high-efficiency system that transfers heat from the air to provide heating or cooling. Produces fewer CO₂ emissions than gas-based systems.
- BTUH (British Thermal Unit per Hour): A unit of heat output capacity. Higher values indicate greater heating/cooling capability.
- AHRI (Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute): The leading HVAC industry association in North America, responsible for product performance standards and shipment data reporting.
